The world is like an automobile that wants to speed more while having very little gas left in the tank. World reserves of "easy" oil, that which flows from present wells drilled on the ground or under shallow waters, have reached a peak and what is left is more expensive. The exploitation of oil existing in areas of difficult access and "difficult" natural gas (stranded gas and methane hydrates) is very costly, and even more so if environmental damage is to be avoided.

The high prices of oil are due in part to the high investments needed to exploit new difficult fields and to establish new gasoline production processes starting from natural gas, based on the almost forgotten Fischer-Tropsch technology, used by the Germans in the Second World War to synthesize gasoline from mineral carbon. Another reason is the close relationship between the oil industry and the also powerful automotive industry, where the fast increase in the offer, thanks to improved robotics for series production and to scrap metal recycling, increases the demand for fuel.

The theme of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming that establishes a carbon credit market, is not very clear. According to this Protocol, CO₂ emission into the atmosphere is a financial liability, or debt; its capture an asset. As CO₂ is captured during photosynthesis, it would make sense to produce biofuels whose net CO₂ input to the atmosphere is supposedly zero and, thus, reduce oil consumption, which does increase liabilities. In addition, the credits allow for the development of technologies that continue to be of low efficiency or complicated for developing countries (photovoltaic cells, underground CO₂ sequestration, etc.).

It could be interpreted that the object of the Protocol is to qualify as devil’s excrement what was hitherto considered as black gold. The media spread is such that, to many, the CO₂ emitted by fossil hydrocarbon combustion harms the climate, while for others it is an atmospheric fertilizer, good for vegetables, while the sun (god of Mayans, Egyptians and other ancient civilizations) is the main responsible for climate change. The noise about global warming could be propaganda with a science disguise, so as to monopolize the easy oil, which otherwise could become exhausted in this century.

If access to electrical power, which 1/3 of the world population lacks at present, is defined as the initial step towards development of the peoples of the so-called Third World, the high prices of oil undoubtedly turn such step into a luxury. It will be difficult for a poor country to finance the installation of an electric power plant in a market dominated by carbon credits, unless it pays for the expensive know how needed to sequester emitted CO₂.

All of this also leads to the increase of food prices. Caterpillars and trucks require oil-derived products in order to produce food, and the increased prices of the first causes increases in the second. Also, the use of fertile land for production of raw materials for biofuels (sugar cane, maize, soy, palm), although it can improve the economy of a country that is not an oil producer, like Brazil, can also hinder the food supply.

Biofuels can be included in the general concept of bioenergy, "renewable" energy produced from biomass. In Australia, eucalyptus trees are cut down to produce electricity and to obtain secondary products such as oil for biodiesel. The vegetable carbon produced through the pyrolysis of wood and known as agrichar or biochar, is considered as a good fertilizer and is part of the debate about "terra preta", used by Amazonian natives over a thousand years ago. "Oil sowing" would stop being a metaphor if the abundant coke obtained in the processing of heavy oils could be used as agrichar.

Famines cannot be attributed to lack of fertile land, but to economic problems derived from political issues. With an efficient agriculture, the use of 10% of the fertile areas of the world would be enough to provide food for all of humanity, and using 30% of it would allow for substitution of all the world oil production (30Gbbl/year) by ethanol. However, in Third World countries, agriculture is up to five times less efficient than in developed countries.

Biofuels could improve or worsen the current food world crisis, according to whether a very efficient agriculture is employed or not. The drive to search for difficult oil will probably prevail instead of exploiting easy biofuels. At most, biofuels would be a vehicle for the transition between the era of fossil fuels and that of the new energetic alternatives.

Jorge Laine

Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas. Venezuela.