<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1317-0570</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Telos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Telos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1317-0570</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Dr. Rafael Belloso Chacín]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1317-05702025000200492</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.36390/telos272.06</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[VOLATILIDAD DEL PRECIO DEL CACAO (Theobroma cacao L) EN COLOMBIA, 2013 - 2023: UN ANÁLISIS DE INTERVENCIÓN]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L) price volatility in Colombia, 2013 - 2023: an intervention analysis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Montealegre-Bustos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Felipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fajardo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eddy]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Rionegro Santander]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bucaramanga ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Industrial de Santander  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bucaramanga ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>492</fpage>
<lpage>507</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1317-05702025000200492&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1317-05702025000200492&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1317-05702025000200492&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La presente investigación tiene como objetivo analizar la volatilidad del precio del cacao en Colombia para el periodo de julio de 2013 hasta diciembre de 2023. La metodología que se empleo es la técnica de análisis de intervención de series de tiempo, que permite identificar dos características, la primera, el Período de comienzo de sucesos externos y la segunda, la forma general del impacto de dichas intervenciones. Así mismo, estos modelos permiten precisar el impacto de valores atípicos en una serie de tiempo. En este estudio se realizó un pronóstico de los precios del cacao a partir de la base datos de Agronet, estimando que para los primeros meses y en el tercer trimestre de cada año los precios de este producto tienden a aumentar en el mercado nacional, estos resultados pueden ser de mucha utilidad para la toma de decisiones de los actores de la cadena de valor del cacao en Colombia, en especial para los productores que se encuentran en el primer eslabón de la cadena. Por su parte, Los resultados identificaron que la crisis causada por el virus del COVID-19, distintos programas gubernamentales y cambios regulatorios en los países demandantes han incidido en la evolución del precio del cacao en Colombia, lo que hace necesario adelantar un monitoreo constante y pronósticos de corto plazo para suavizar los efectos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The objective of this research is to analyze the volatility of cocoa prices in Colombia for the period from July 2013 to December 2023. The methodology used is the technique of time series intervention analysis, which allows identifying two characteristics, the first, the period of onset of external events and the second, the general form of the impact of such interventions. These models also make it possible to pinpoint the impact of outliers in a time series. This study made a forecast of cocoa prices based on the Agronet database, estimating that cocoa prices tend to increase in the domestic market during the first months and third quarter of each year; these results can be very useful for decision making by actors in the cocoa value chain in Colombia, especially for producers in the first link of the chain. The results identified that the crisis caused by the COVID-19 virus, various government programs and regulatory changes in demanding countries have had an impact on the evolution of cocoa prices in Colombia, which makes it necessary to carry out constant monitoring and short-term forecasts to soften the effects.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cacao]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Precio de Materias Primas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos SARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de intervención]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cocoa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Colombia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Commodity Prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SARIMA Model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[intervention analysis]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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