<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2960-2467</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[e-Revista Multidisciplinaria del Saber]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[e-Rev. Multidiscip. Saber]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2960-2467</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Investigación en Tecnologías de Salud y Ambiente (CITSA)]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2960-24672026000102016</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.61286/e-rms.v4i.383</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Shocks geopolíticos y precios del petróleo: Análisis econométrico de la marginalidad productiva en Venezuela 2025-2026]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Geopolitical shocks and crude oil prices: An econometric analysis of productive marginality in Venezuela, 2025-2026]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Suárez-Agreda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Humberto Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Riveros-Matos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jacqueline Gloria]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arias-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl Eleazar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Llancari Chocce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huancavelica ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Continental  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huancayo ]]></addr-line>
<country>Perú</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huancavelica ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huancavelica ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>4</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2960-24672026000102016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2960-24672026000102016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2960-24672026000102016&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Introducción: Los mercados petroleros se caracterizan por una interacción compleja entre fundamentos de oferta, demanda y expectativas geopolíticas. En este contexto, Venezuela ha pasado de ser un pilar estratégico a un productor marginal debido a un colapso estructural iniciado a mediados de la década de 2010. Objetivo: Evaluar empíricamente si los eventos geopolíticos en un productor de relevancia sistémica disminuida, como Venezuela, mantienen la capacidad de influir en los precios internacionales del crudo durante el bienio 2025-2026. Metodología: Se empleó un enfoque econométrico robusto utilizando modelos de vectores autorregresivos con variables exógenas (VARX) y modelos autorregresivos integrados de media móvil con variables exógenas (ARIMAX) sobre una serie de 131 observaciones mensuales (2015-2025). Se controló por factores financieros globales mediante el índice del dólar (DXY). Resultados: El modelo ARIMAX reveló que la trayectoria del precio del Brent está dominada por su inercia histórica (coeficiente de 0,903) y por el índice DXY (coeficiente de -2,222; p = 0,009). El choque geopolítico de 2026 resultó estadísticamente insignificante (p = 1,000), careciendo de impacto material en la formación de precios globales. Conclusiones: La arquitectura del mercado petrolero actual muestra una "inmunidad" ante crisis en productores periféricos, priorizando la eficiencia informacional y los fundamentos macrofinancieros sobre la retórica política. Se concluye que la relevancia geopolítica de un actor es directamente proporcional a su capacidad operativa; en contextos de marginalidad productiva, el ruido político doméstico se convierte en un evento local sin trascendencia en los mercados internacionales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Introduction: Oil markets are characterized by a complex interaction between supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitical expectations. In this context, Venezuela has transitioned from a strategic pillar to a marginal producer due to a structural collapse initiated in the mid-2010s. Objective: To empirically evaluate whether geopolitical events in a producer with diminished systemic relevance, such as Venezuela, maintain the capacity to influence international crude oil prices during the 2025-2026 biennium. Methodology: A robust econometric approach was employed using Vector Autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) on a series of 131 monthly observations (2015-2025). Global financial factors were controlled for using the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Results: The ARIMAX model revealed that the Brent price trajectory is dominated by its historical inertia (coefficient of 0.903) and by the DXY index (coefficient of -2.222; p = 0.009). The 2026 geopolitical shock was statistically insignificant (p = 1.000), lacking material impact on global price formation. Conclusions: The current oil market architecture exhibits "immunity" to crises in peripheral producers, prioritizing informational efficiency and macro-financial fundamentals over political rhetoric. It is concluded that an actor's geopolitical relevance is directly proportional to its operational capacity; in contexts of productive marginality, domestic political noise becomes a local event without significance in international markets.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crudo Brent]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo geopolítico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARIMAX]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[DXY]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[marginalidad operativa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Brent crude]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[geopolitical risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMAX]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[DXY]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[operational marginality]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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