Abstract

CORTEZ, Adriana et al. Análisis geoestadístico de la variabilidad temporal, a una escala anual y mensual, de parámetros climáticos en un campo experimental, estado Aragua, Venezuela. Agronomía Trop. [online]. 2005, vol.55, n.3, pp.327-342. ISSN 0002-192X.

Concern for climatic variability and its influences has increased. Agricultural activity and climatic change have reciprocal influences. The objective of this work was to evaluate the temporal variability of precipitation and temperature data of the climatic station located in the experimental field of CENIAP. Precipitation data corresponding to the period 1960-2003, and temperature (maxim, minimum and average) data corresponding to the period 1960-1999 were selected and subjected to an exploratory analysis (EA) and a geostatistic analysis. The EA indicated that the precipitation data set had a logarithmic normal distribution and the temperature data set had a near normal distribution. Precipitation and temperature in the experimental field of the CENIAP has presented important annual and monthly recurrent cyclic variations: quinquenial and biannual for the case of precipitation and 4 to 7 years and 4 to 5 months in the case of temperature. Within year variations were higher than between years variations. The presence of this systematic variation in the time indicates that the use of the means of these variables doesn’t constitute an efficient tool of prediction. The variation model developed by geoestatistics could be a useful solution for climatic predictions

Keywords : Climatic variability; semivariograms; kriging.