Abstract

OVALLES, Francisco A et al. Geographical variation of the climate change on the agriculture sector in venezuela. Agronomía Trop. [online]. 2008, vol.58, n.1, pp.37-40. ISSN 0002-192X.

About 94.3% of the Venezuelan agriculture is developed under rainfed conditions. This makes the agriculture vulnerable to the climate change, mainly if the expected values of precipitation and the number of humid months on several zones of the country diminish. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the climatic change on the main land uses of affected regions. The geographic distribution of the annual average precipitation and temperature were calculated for four periods (present, 2020, 2040 and 2060), the regions of greater affectation were established, each one them was considered as land unit (LU). In each area the most representative land use was selected, they were considered as the land use type (LUT). The evaluation of the LUT for each LU, according to methodology of land evaluation, was made. The impact of the climatic change is not equal in all the country. The geographic distribution of precipitation and temperature values showed spatial patterns. As far as the values of precipitation, there are some regions where the changes are little significant; whereas for other zones it is expected reductions up to 25% in the values of precipitation. In relation to temperature, the models predict increases up to 3,5°C for the year 2060 in most of the country. The results of the land evaluation, in general, indicate that the permanent crops will undergo the greater degree of affectation.

Keywords : Climate change; average rainfall; land evaluation.