Resumen

ABARCA, Oscar  y  BERNABE P, Miguel A. Projection of the demand of agricultural earth in Venezuela, from the analysis of the nourishing needs to year 2020. Agronomía Trop. [online]. 2010, vol.60, n.3, pp.5-22. ISSN 0002-192X.

In the present work there has been calculated the necessary surface of agricultural lands to give the minimal food requirements of the Venezuelan population in 2020, from the design and optimization of a hypothetical diet that provides 3.001 calories/person/day, 91 g protein/person/ day, 88 g fat/person/day, 452 g carbohydrates/person/day and 942 mg calcium/person/day. From the dietetic designed formula, the quantity production needed and the corresponding harvested area, for each items and productive systems of the country, been calculated, under an approach of food self-sufficiency. The lands demand was estimated for three possible scenarios of crop yield and the result was compared with the lands availability, to evaluate the agricultural lands availability/demand balance. The considered three scenarios were: productivity with the current rate of crops yields (2007), changes in crops yields based in historical trend and productivity based in maximum crops yields obtained in experimental regional essays. The historical trend was evaluated by linear regression analysis on each item historical series. To satisfy the population food needs in 2020 there is needed approximately 55 million t of gross agricultural products to the year, which demand to harvest between 19 and 28 million ha, in agreement to the considered productivity scenarios. The lands general balance is positive, but when disaggregated, a significant deficit is observed in the systems High Floor Horticulture and Annual Mechanized Crops

Palabras clave : agricultural crops; production; yields; surface; lands demand; lands availability; Venezuela.