Abstract

GARCIA MATA, Roberto et al. Modelo econométrico para determinar los factores que afectan el mercado de la carne de porcino en México. INCI [online]. 2004, vol.29, n.8, pp.414-420. ISSN 0378-1844.

In order to determine the factors that affect the pork market in Mexico, a model of simultaneous equations was used, made up of one equation for supply, one for demand, three for price transmissions and one for foreign trade balance identity. Elasticities were calculated for periods of closed (1960-1985) and open (1986-2002) economy. The results indicate that in the last period, pork production responded elastically to technology, and inelastically to product and balanced food prices, since the elasticities obtained were 1.65, 0.58, and -0.29, respectively. In the same period, demand responded inelastically to the factors that determine it, obtaining elasticities of -0.33 for pork price, 0.16 for beef, 0.18 for the private consumption budget, and 0.30 for the urbanization process. The foreign trade balance responded elastically to all the mentioned factors as determinants of supply and demand. Finally, the results indicate that external conditions have a reduced impact upon the main variables of the market, since the elasticities that relate international price to supply, demand, and foreign trade balance were only 0.07, -0.04, and -0.76, respectively.

Keywords : Elasticidad; Mercado de la Carne de Porcino; Modelo Econométrico.