Abstract

BOSCO BRUNO, Rossana; MALPICA ALBERT, Oscar  and  EBLEN-ZAJJUR, Antonio. Simulación de una explosión nuclear en Valencia, Venezuela: análisis biofísico y médico . INCI [online]. 2004, vol.29, n.9, pp.485-489. ISSN 0378-1844.

In view of the current interest in the effects of nuclear detonations (ND) on the population, equations obtained from real ND were applied to estimate those effects in the city of Valencia, Venezuela. The explosion of a fission device of 15Kt was computer-simulated, with hypocenter (HC) in the midpoint of the main avenue, and the 2002 population census considered. Four settings were analyzed: A) cloudy day, wind 0,1km·h^-1, terrestrial detonation; B) similar to A but aerial detonation; C) sunny day, wind 10km·h^-1, terrestrial detonation, and D) similar to C but aerial detonation. Casualties were in 10069 carbonized people (>10cal·cm^-2, <660m from HC), 9737 3rd degree burned people (5-10cal·cm^-2, 660-930m), 74855 2nd deg burned (1-5cal·cm^-2, 930-2090m) in A; 23847 carbonized (<1010m), 22125 3rd deg burned (1010-1420m) and 118841 2nd deg burned (1420-3200m) in B; 32658 carbonized (<1210m), 32791 3rd deg burned (1210-1720m) and 121226 2nd deg burned (1720-3860m) in C; and 76674 carbonized (<1860m), 56837 3rd deg burned (1860-2630m) and 266100 2nd deg burned people (2630-5900m) in D. In the four settings approximately 68165 people will die at <1740m due to pressures 1.39-0.135kg·cm^-2. A total of 7419 people will receive equivalent doses >6Sv; 36632 will receive 1-6Sv. Terrestrial NDs (A and C) produced the greatest fallout, 0.05Sv at 14.6h and 0.1Sv at 30min, respectively. The accumulated radiation after 104 days was 0.351Sv. Wounded people will exponentialy exceed health facilities.

Keywords : Detonación Nuclear; Efectos Biológicos; Radiaciones Ionizantes; Valencia; Venezuela.