Resumo

RUIZ FIGUEROA, Alejandro  e  MAKAGONOV, Pavel. Models of the evolution of hardware and software based on the study of parallel computing. INCI [online]. 2007, vol.32, n.3, pp.160-166. ISSN 0378-1844.

An analysis of the laws and models of the evolution of hardware and software allows quantifying and evaluating scientific activity in the areas of electronics and computer science. This enables institutions involved in this process to distribute economic resources more objectively. For this analysis, 2300 abstracts on parallel, concurrent, distributed and simultaneous computing themes were collected and from them the temporal tendency of hardware and software are revealed. Methods for constructing specific and general quantitative models of the evolution of hardware and software are proposed. The specific model is an S-curve constructed from initials of this curve; the general model is the tangential curve which overlaps the set of S-curves. Based on this methodology, a new approach for generalizing Moore’s law is proposed, based on mapping a temporal tendency of the size of electronic devices. The models proposed and developed are useful for the justification and explanation of the development of "normal science", and "research-front science" in electronics and computing.

Palavras-chave : Ciencia Normal; Ciencia Revolucionaria; Curva S; Evolución de la Electrónica; Generalización de la Ley de Moore.