Resumen

GARCIA, Karla; JARA, Alfonso; ORTIZ, Juan Carlos  y  VICTORIANO, Pedro. Evaluation of an extinction scenario for the last population of hippocamelus bisulcus (Molina, 1782) in central Chile. INCI [online]. 2008, vol.33, n.2, pp.152-159. ISSN 0378-1844.

In order to evaluate the population projection for the huemul of the south (Hippocamelus bisulcus) in Central Chile (Nevados de Chillán), a stochastic simulation model was applied. This population has continually decreased in size over the last decade and empirical estimates suggest that in a short time the current relicts of this population would extinguish locally. The simulation model was applied using life history and environmental data. Survival rate, mean fecundity and carrying capacity were modeled over a time span of 100 years. The population age structure, sex ratio and local density average were determined on the basis of historical (1975-2003) records. The results indicate that this is a high risk population with a mean extinction time between 27 and 42 years. The population decline could be explained by effects generated mainly by sustained anthropic perturbation occurring in a large proportion of primary habitats and by stochastic environmental perturbations. The relevance of several protection measures is discussed, including increment for the area of available primary habitat, conservation of corridors among fragments, and translocation of individuals from the existing southern populations in XI Region of Chile

Palabras clave : Hippocamelus bisulcus; Huemul; Peligro de Extinción; Simulación Poblacional.