Resumen

CARDONA CH, Nathalia E et al. Dengue fever risk stratification in Puerto Ayacucho City, Amazonas State, Venezuela: 1995-2010 period. INHRR [online]. 2014, vol.45, n.1, pp.64-83. ISSN 0798-0477.

Control of Aedes aegypti is difficult to perform due to the extent and variety of neighborhoods where the breeding grounds are found, the lack of permanent access to public services, and to the absence of a strict and constant epidemiological surveillance.  2,603 confirmed dengue cases (IgM-dengue) were recorded during the 1995-2010 period. This study was carried out in Puerto Ayacucho, main city of Amazonas State, Venezuela, with 98,824 inhabitants. Confirmed cases of individuals affected were grouped according to the location of their residence. Information is spatially represented to analyze space-time patterns of dengue, establishing a stratification of the city. The prevalence of dengue showed a positive correlation with the persistence per neighborhood, allowing to group the neighborhoods into two classes: (1) High prevalence and persistence, with 66% of the confirmed cases, and (2) low prevalence and persistence, with 34% cases. The study shows there are "hot spots" or higher transmission areas, and "cold spots" or transient transmission areas in Puerto Ayacucho. All the neighborhoods included in the category of high prevalence and persistence represent 65.1% of the urban area. This is the geographical area in which we recommend to concentrate control efforts. The stratification of the city and the identification of case-producing neighborhoods, showing the areas where virus transmission is most likely, will permit concentrating efforts to mitigate it. Focus of control activities based on a stratification study allows directing programs to most problematic areas.

Palabras clave : Dengue; stratification; Puerto Ayacucho; Venezuela.

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