Resumen

VELASCO FUENMAYOR, Julia; ORTEGA-SOTO, Leonardo; SANCHEZ-CAMARILLO, Egar  y  URDANETA, Fátima. Sensitivity analysis of the technological level adopted in the dual purpose cattle farms located in the Zulia State, Venezuela. Rev. Cient. (Maracaibo) [online]. 2010, vol.20, n.1, pp.67-73. ISSN 0798-2259.

The objective of this research was to simulate the probability of the farmer of belonging to a specific technological level according to the presence of the determinant factors in scenarios created different from original conditions. These factors were obtained of applying the Ordered Probit model on a sample of 102 farms, located in Jesus Enrique Lossada, La Cañada de Urdaneta y Rosario de Perijá Municipalities of the Zulia State, Venezuela. The sample was previously stratified in three technological groups: Low (TG₁), Middle (TG₂) and High (TG₃) by the K-means algorithm. The geographic locations of the farm, educative level of the farmer and farm size resulted to be the determinant factors. These factors were utilized to evaluate their effect on the probability due to the changes of original conditions of the farm. These changes in the probability are called sensitivity. The results showed that there is a positive relationship between the determinant factors and technological level of the farm. Therefore, a farmer with university degree, his or her farm is located in Rosario de Perijá with more than 200 animal units. In addition, the farmer utilizes the frequently technical assistance; it is much more probably that this farmer tends more innovated and reaches a higher technological level than the TG₁.

Palabras clave : Technological levels; determinant factors; dual-purpose cattle systems; sensitivity.