Resumo

MORA, Briceida  e  REYES, Víctor. Analysis of trends and annual and inter-annual variation of the rainfalls (period: 1957-2006) in the Boconó River basin,Trujillo State, Venezuela. Revista de Investigación [online]. 2013, vol.37, n.80, pp.45-68. ISSN 1010-2914.

This  research  study  of  trends  and  annual  variations-interannual  of rainfall in the basin of river Boconó, is a contribution to populations are seated in its vicinity, for decision-decisions that minimize the impact that the rainfall regimes carry each year. Methodologically was checked Data homogeneity, application of the Model ARIMA (Box-Jenkins), the Test of Goodness  of  Adjustment  (Kolmorogov-Smirnov),  calculation  of  Annual Variations-Interannual  (VA-VIA)  and  forecasts  employing  a  projection ARIMA of each station. The results concluded that the model ARIMA is located represented by (000) (101). La VA by the increase of rainfall in relation with the reference year and descent of the annual amounts from nineties. La VIA evidence periodicity of two years to rains continuous and droughts mild. Los forecasts 2010-2015 manifest upward trend of rainfall maintaining the seasonality.

Palavras-chave : Rainfall; trend  analysis; annual  and  interannual  variation; forecasts; Trujillo State.

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