Abstract

PAREDES, Franklin; LA CRUZ, Freddy  and  GUEVARA, Edilberto. Regional frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in the largest cereals producing region of VenezuelaLos. Bioagro [online]. 2014, vol.26, n.1, pp.21-28. ISSN 1316-3361.

Llanos represents the main cereal producing region in Venezuela, but the region is usually affected by some extreme droughts. Droughts cause great economic losses and affect grain production, thus preventing adequate supply to the domestic market. The objective of this study was to perform a regional frequency analysis to estimate the return period of extreme droughts at Anzoátegui, Cojedes, Portuguesa, and Guárico States as the study unit (SU). It included identification of homogeneous regions according to the frequency distribution of the annual precipitation at the SU, determination of the regional growth curve in the homogeneous regions, and mapping of the return period of extreme dry years in the SU. It was found that the SU has six homogeneous sub-regions according to the distribution of annual rainfall; the probability distribution function that best fits the annual rainfall records in the SU is the Generalized Normal, followed by the Pearson type III;  the watershed of rivers Unare and Manzanares (northern Anzoátegui) and the geographical axis San Juan-Guanipa (northeastern Anzoátegui), the watershed of river Manapire (Guárico) and the plains “Morichal Largo” (southern Anzoátegui) have the highest risk of occurrence of dry years.

Keywords : Meteorological events; Venezuelan Llanos; mapping; rainfall.

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