Resumo

ACEVEDO RUEDA, Rubén  e  PIMENTEL, José A. Econometric model for maximum daily electrical load forecast. uct [online]. 2014, vol.18, n.70, pp.4-11. ISSN 1316-4821.

Lara state is an important Venezuelan region and the daily forecast of electricity demand is considered a key issue for maintenance schedules and the acceptance of regular interventions to the system since load estimations are the basis for contingency and operation planning. Just like the demand forecasts are highly recognized by authors as a fundamental part of electrical service planning processes, the characteristics of a highly complex multivariable problem, its non-linear nature and the needs of evaluating the applicability for each particular system, are also realized by authors. This paper presents an econometric model developed for the short-term load forecast (STLF) and its application. Exogenous variables are considered; and weekdays, holidays and temperature are the independent variables for this model. In addition, a two-stage forecast is considered in order to minimize the influence of time series components for daily estimations.

Palavras-chave : Short-term load forecast; operation planning; econometric model.

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