Resumen

MONTEALEGRE-BUSTOS, Felipe; FAJARDO, Eddy  y  ROMERO, Héctor. Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L) price volatility in Colombia, 2013 - 2023: an intervention analysis. Telos [online]. 2025, vol.27, n.2, pp.492-507.  Epub 05-Dic-2025. ISSN 1317-0570.  https://doi.org/10.36390/telos272.06.

The objective of this research is to analyze the volatility of cocoa prices in Colombia for the period from July 2013 to December 2023. The methodology used is the technique of time series intervention analysis, which allows identifying two characteristics, the first, the period of onset of external events and the second, the general form of the impact of such interventions. These models also make it possible to pinpoint the impact of outliers in a time series. This study made a forecast of cocoa prices based on the Agronet database, estimating that cocoa prices tend to increase in the domestic market during the first months and third quarter of each year; these results can be very useful for decision making by actors in the cocoa value chain in Colombia, especially for producers in the first link of the chain. The results identified that the crisis caused by the COVID-19 virus, various government programs and regulatory changes in demanding countries have had an impact on the evolution of cocoa prices in Colombia, which makes it necessary to carry out constant monitoring and short-term forecasts to soften the effects.

Palabras clave : Cocoa; Colombia; Commodity Prices; SARIMA Model; intervention analysis.

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