Abstract

MONSALVE, Nora C; RUBIO-PALIS, Yasmín  and  PEREZ, María E. Spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Dengue incidence in the metropolitan area of Maracay, Venezuela. Bol Mal Salud Amb [online]. 2010, vol.50, n.2, pp.219-232. ISSN 1690-4648.

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in Aragua State, Venezuela. The situation has worsened in recent years, with a major epidemic during 2001. During 2002 and 2003 the exposition rates and relative risks of the municipalities that encompass Aragua State showed the highest relative risk of infection in the metropolitan area of Maracay. The municipalities of Girardot (capital), Francisco Linares Alcántara and Santiago Mariño concentrated the highest risk. During 2002 and 2003 the number of new dengue cases increased especially during the rainy season, showing the existence of a seasonal pattern. The present work presents Bayesian Hierarchical Models with spatio-temporal structure that included climatic and socioeconomic explanatory variables used to identify factors of major influence on dengue incidence and determined the municipalities with higher risks. Models were fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and selected using the deviance information criteria (DIC), respectively. These models constitute an important tool that epidemiologists and public health officers in Aragua State have to consider for the control of the vector Aedes aegypti Linnaeus.

Keywords : Bayesian Hierarchical Model; space-temporal structure; Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); deviance information criteria (DIC); relative risk; dengue; Aedes aegypti.