Abstract

MEDINA, Domingo et al. Risk map of malaria transmission in the Caura river basin, Venezuela. Bol Mal Salud Amb [online]. 2011, vol.51, n.2, pp.129-144. ISSN 1690-4648.

Malaria risk maps have been used to support the optimization of the use of human, material and financial resources for the prevention and control of the disease. In Venezuela, these maps are based on annual parasite index, where municipalities are classified using different risk intervals. These maps have low spatial resolution, use risk intervals too broad and do not consider multiple risk factors and their different spatial and temporal scales (eg. biological behavior of parasites and vectors, conditions conducive to man-vector contact and potentially favorable conditions to the prevention and control of the disease). The aim of this study was to identify risk areas of malaria in the Caura River Basin (Venezuelan Guayana), based in a multi-criteria evaluation of climatic, geographical and anthropogenic variables and their suitability for malaria transmission. The risk criteria were expressed spatially as raster image layers using decision rules and normalized using fuzzy logic. The combination of different criteria produced a synthesis map of continuous values of risk of malaria transmission based on the following indexes: a) climatic suitability for the viability of Anopheles darlingi and Plasmodium spp., b) geomorphologic and vegetation suitability for vector hatcheries; c) human occupation preferences and d) vulnerability of communities. The resultant map was reclassified in levels of risk and it was evaluated overlaying the number of cases accumulated per level of risk between 2000 and 2010, and its epidemiological surveillance importance is discussed for the region.

Keywords : Malaria risk map; multi-criteria evaluation; Cuenca del Río Caura; Venezuela.