Abstract

RUBIO-PALIS, Yasmin et al. Influence of climatic variables on dengue cases and abundance of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Maracay, Venezuela. Bol Mal Salud Amb [online]. 2011, vol.51, n.2, pp.145-158. ISSN 1690-4648.

In order to determine the influence of climatic and entomological variables on the number of dengue cases, a retrospective and longitudinal study was conducted in the metropolitan area of Maracay during the period 1997-2005. Daily and monthly climatological data was obtained from the Climatological Station at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and epidemiological data based on confirmed and highly suggestive cases reported by the Regional Laboratory for Diagnosis and Research on Dengue and other Viral Infections (LARDIDEV). Aedes aegypti (L.) adults were collected monthly between November 2000 and December 2001. Vector abundance varied from 3,6 Aedes/house during April (dry season) to 14,7 Aedes/house (rainy season). Pearson correlation analysis showed a positive correlation between the number of dengue cases and rainfall (r= 0,7182, P =0,0038) and abundance of Ae. aegypti (r= 0,667, P =0,0078), but no correlation was found with temperature or relative humidity. Regression analysis showed that there was a highly significant relation (R2 = 88,7%, P< 0,0001) between rainfall and dengue cases at a lag of 2 months. The present results might be used to design and implement programs for the epidemiological and entomological dengue surveillance as well as to establish an early warning system to prevent epidemics.

Keywords : Aedes aegypti abundance; rainfall; air temperature; dengue; Venezuela.