Resumen

RUBIO-PALIS, Yasmin; GUZMAN, Hernán; SANCHEZ, Víctor  y  PEREZ YBARRA, Luis Manuel. Population fluctuations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and dengue cases in 6 Municipalities of Aragua State, Venezuela. Bol Mal Salud Amb [online]. 2017, vol.57, n.1, pp.01-16. ISSN 1690-4648.

Aragua State, located in north-central Venezuela, is considered hyperendemic for dengue virus transmission, with circulation of Chikungunya and Zika viruses since 2014. In order to investigate the impact of water supply and climate variability on inmature Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases, a longitudinal study was conducted in 6 localities situated in 6 different municipalities during 13 months. During the study, 2,296 houses were visited and 9,358 containers were examined for larvae and pupae. The Aedes house index was not homogeneous spatially or temporarily with significant differences among locations (P< 0.0001). The 200L drums were the most frequent type of containers found (82.3%), followed by tanks of 1,000L or more (9.05%), 12L containers (4.98%), various types (2.13%) (tires, cans, small plastic waste containers, plant pots, etc.), and 100L containers (1.58%). During the study 69,765 larvae and 6,896 pupae were collected. The overall container index was 18.63%; tanks of ≥1000L had the highest larvae index per positive container (63.84) while containers of various types had the highest pupae index per positive container (8.03%). Cryptic larval habitats were not observed. Deficiencies in piped water supply was closely related to high Aedes indices. There was significant correlation between monthly total dengue cases and rainfall with lags of one, two and three months in each municipality. The correlations between monthly Ae. aegypti abundance (larvae and pupae, container ratios, container index), climate parameters (monthly rainfall, mean monthly temperature, mean minimum monthly temperature and maximum temperature) and dengue incidence were not significant (P>0.05). Although the container, house and Breteau indices can be used to evaluate the elimination of containers, they are not relevant for the prediction of dengue outbreaks.

Palabras clave : Aedes aegypti; larval habitats; pupae; water supply; virus transmission; climate variables.

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