Abstract

MUNOZ-MARCILLO, José Luis; RIVADENEIRA-TRIVINO, Luis Enrique  and  VEAS-TRIANA, Luis Miguel. Impact of territorial dynamics and land use projections on social well-being in the Vinces River basin. e-Rev. Multidiscip. Saber [online]. 2025, vol.3, e-RMS08122025.  Epub Mar 17, 2026. ISSN 2960-2467.  https://doi.org/10.61286/e-rms.v3i.319.

This study examines the impact of territorial dynamics and land use transformations in the middle-lower basin of the Vinces River during the 2010-2020 period, evaluating its influence on spatial configuration and projecting scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The region, characterized by a predominantly flat relief with 70% of slopes below 5%, holds strategic relevance for the socio-economic well-being of the Ecuadorian coast. Methodologically, Landsat 7 and 8 satellite images were processed through supervised classification and the maximum likelihood algorithm, identifying five use categories: agricultural, forest, livestock, urban, and water bodies. The results reveal an expansion of the agricultural frontier by 222.6%, reaching 62,288.98 hectares at the expense of livestock and forest areas. This growth is mostly located in zones with significant water susceptibility, which increases the vulnerability of productive infrastructure and human settlements. Through modeling with Markov chains and Land Change Modeler, it is projected that the agricultural area will exceed 79,000 hectares by the year 2050. The analysis demonstrates that the accelerated transformation of the landscape, driven by road connectivity and water demand, requires integrated territorial planning. It is concluded that it is imperative to implement governance strategies that balance productivity with risk management and the sustainability of ecosystem services, ensuring territorial resilience and the social well-being of the population in the face of future climate challenges and unplanned land use changes.

Keywords : territorial dynamics; water management; stochastic modeling; territorial planning; environmental vulnerability.

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